A more balanced housing market is on the way… from The OC, Surrounding!

A more balanced housing market is on the way

Home prices rose 19% year-over-year across 19 major U.S. markets, according to Redfin’s June home price tracker. Strong price increases continue to support growing inventory, Redfin writes, which increased for the third consecutive month.

Sacramento, San Francisco and Las Vegas yet again had the highest year-over-year price increases, gaining 38%, 34%, and 33%, respectively. Philadelphia experienced the smallest gain in prices, with a 3.1% increase year over year.

The number of homes for sale fell 19% from June 2012, but rose 2.4% month-over-month. June marks the third consecutive month-over-month increase.

Chicago and Phoenix were again the only markets that saw year-over-year improvement, with Chicago up 2.3% and Phoenix up 10%.

Home sales, on the other hand, faltered in June, with a minor year-over-year gain of 2.7%, and a 5% decline from the May report. Ten markets saw sales increase from last year, four fewer than in May. Just six markets saw an increase in monthly sales volume.

Although the housing market is still a seller’s market, the June numbers point toward a more balanced market.

$ell SmArt… with Art!

5 Real Estate Recovery Myths… from The OC!

5 Real Estate Recovery Myths

Like anything else, real estate has its urban legends, its stories that get told so often they seem like they must be true. But unlike urban legends about exploding Pop Rocks or the origins of Jennifer Aniston’s ‘Friends’-era haircut, real estate myths have the potential to create fear, panic, paralysis and all sorts of other decision glitches.

The recent market upturn, coming on the heels of 6 years of near-Depression, has given rise to its own set of real estate myths.  Here is a handful, along with some ways you can and should rethink them.Myth #1.  It’s recovering too fast.  According to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price index, American home prices increased an average of 10.6 percent between March 2012 and March 2013. Twelve of the 20 major metro areas tracked had year-over-year median home price increases in the double-digits. The list was topped by Phoenix, San Francisco and Las Vegas, all of which saw 20 percent or greater annual home price increases.

That seems crazy fast, to some. So crazy, in fact, that it’s created the fear that the current market’s exuberance will re-create the steep incline and decline in home values that we all remember not-so-fondly from the last boom-bust cycle.

Here’s the deal: markets have cycles, period. So I can guarantee you that the ups and downs will repeat, though hopefully not to such extremes. Part of what made the last down cycle so extreme was the fact that lenders were greenlighting massive home loans to borrowers without requiring them to document their ability to pay for the property over the long term. Buyers, in turn, overextended themselves regularly. Today’s loans are allowing people to buy without putting much down, but I haven’t seen almost any examples of the fully stated income or so-called “liar’s” loans that really got people in trouble. (Yet.)

Here’s the other thing: the data can be a bit misleading.  When an area’s home values have been very, very depressed for long, it simply doesn’t take that vast of an uptick to generate double-digit percentage point increases. When you look at the top five recovery markets, according to the Case-Shiller, four of them: Phoenix, Las Vegas, Miami and Tampa – ranked among the hardest hit markets in the foreclosure crisis and resulting downturn. (San Francisco was the anomaly.)  When you look at other markets that skated through the recession relatively unscathed, like New York, you see the percentage point increase year-over-year was much less impressive/ less scary (depending on your outlook), at 2.6 percent.

Myth #2.  Investors are driving demand. In some areas, investors are buying up lots of low-priced homes. From big Wall Street investment groups to Mom-and-Pop investors, people who don’t plan to live in the homes they’re buying were responsible for about 20% of May home sales. But this number is actually on a downward path – investors were responsible for 22% of home sales in April, and investor activity should continue to decline as prices increase, putting a cap on the profits investors can realize.

While investor activity is declining, buyer demand is increasing, as evidenced by increasing numbers of cash transactions, offers per property and speed of homes leaving the market.

First-time buyers are responsible for 36% of current buyer activity and repeat homeowners for over 43%. Investors have been active, but by no means are they responsible for creating the intense buyer demand that now characterizes the market.

Myth #3.  Sellers are stuck.  This time, let’s start with what’s true. Many, many sellers in hot markets are in the midst of an exasperating Catch-22:  they can finally sell their homes, which have been underwater for years. But now they struggle to buy, amidst the multiple offer mania – some report having to make offers on dozens of homes, or even having to rent a place until they can buy one.

As I see it, sellers aren’t stuck as much as they are being forced into being strategic about sequencing their transactions and setting up their deal points. During the recession, millions of sellers had no equity – or negative equity. That meant they couldn’t sell, which meant they didn’t have the money to buy – heck, many couldn’t even refinance. That’s what I call stuck. Now, they have the option to pull cash out to buy first, the option to refinance and stay put, and the option to sell – period.  So for my dollar, today’s sellers are nowhere near stuck, compared with the truly stuck sellers of yesteryear.

Most of the sellers who have recently, truly gotten stuck (i.e., sellers who’ve been forced to rent until they could successfully buy) ended up in that situation because they listed their homes first, unaware that the market truly had shifted and that their home would fly off the market. Now, we know. So, if you’re selling in a super-hot market, work with your agent to put a strategy in place. Consider buying first, if you have the means or can get them. Or list your home with a Seller’s Contingency or a rent-back agreement (where your home’s buyer rents it back to you for a short time), to buy yourself some extra time to score a new place.  Your agent and mortgage pros can help.

Myth #4.  Rates are through the roof.  Have mortgage interest rates gone up?  Yes.  Is the Fed signaling they intend to raise rates, too?  Yes – in 2015.  (Not exactly tomorrow.)

Last week’s reported 30 year mortgage rates were 3.94 percent, and 15-year rates were right around 3%.  Given that the record low rates clocked in at 3.31 (30-year) and 2.62 (15-year), even today’s higher rates are not worth your worry.  Nor is an increase of rates likely to cause all the pent-up buyer demand of the last few years to dissipate.  My Dad used to remind me that people bought homes when rates were 14% in the 80’s, and they will buy them now, even as they inch up – because they need and want places to live.

Myth #5.  Foreclosures are a thing of the past. Through the recession, many banks and mortgage servicers began to hold hundreds of thousands of foreclosed homes off the market to avoid flooding it, depressing prices even further than they already were. And even now, these institutions continue to trickle them onto the market, rather than creating a deluge of home inventory. Additionally, mortgage regulators now allow servicers to rent out REOs, versus selling them, and to hold them as long as 5 or 10 years following foreclosure, if needed.

While we are seeing a steep decline in the number of newly foreclosured homes, we can expect to have a higher-than-average number of foreclosed homes – REOs – on the market for some years to come. This so-called “shadow inventory” had declined over 10% nationwide between January 2012 and January 2013.  And with the uptick in demand, we should continue to see this so-called “shadow inventory” of homes decline as banks take the opportunity to get these homes off their books.

$ell SmArt… with Art!
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O.C. home prices up 21.7% in June… from The OC!

O.C. home prices up 21.7% in June

Orange County home prices increased 21.7 percent in June compared to June 2012, Irvine-based CoreLogic reported Tuesday.

It was the biggest annual percentage gain in local home prices since December 2004 for a second straight month, according to CoreLogic.

Article Tab: image1-O.C. home prices up 21.7% in June
JEBB HARRIS, ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER

Nationwide, home prices increased 11.9 percent in June year over year, the report showed.

“The U.S. housing market experienced robust price appreciation during the first half of 2013, and our forecast calls for double-digit growth through July,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and chief executive of CoreLogic. “Despite their rebound of late, home prices remain reasonable in a historical context, with most states near peak affordability levels.”

Home prices in California were up 21.4 percent overall in June. Prices increased 20.7 percent in Los Angeles County and 19.8 percent in the Inland Empire.

CoreLogic analyzes repeat sale transactions, meaning the same single-family homes are followed for a period of time.

Yes You Can… Buy a Home Immediately After You Short Sell Your Home… from The OC, Surrounding!

Yes You Can…Buy A Home Immediately After You Short Sell Your Home!

Short Sale Today….Buy Another Home Tomorrow…

Here’s how:

FHA allows borrowers to be eligible for a new FHA loan even if they just recently sold their principal residence with a short sale.

Almost every lender will tell you there is a 3 year waiting period as most lenders will not allow this program to be used due to credit overlays they have. There are specific guidelines that must be met for borrowers to purchase again without a waiting period.

Guidelines that must be met in order to purchase sooner than 3 years FHA

 

Borrowers are not eligible for a new FHA mortgage if they pursued a short sale agreement on his or her principal residence simply to:

1)      Take advantage of declining market conditions

2)      Purchase at a reduced price a similar or superior property within a reasonable commuting distance

3)      All mortgage payments due on the prior mortgage were made within the month due for the 12 month period preceding the short sale

4)      All installment debt payments for the same period were also made within the month due

Borrowers in default of their mortgage at the time of their short sale (or pre-foreclosure sale) are not eligible for a new FHA mortgage for three years from the date of the pre-foreclosure sale.

As you may have determined already from reading these guidelines that interpretation is subjective to how an underwriter views a borrower’s reasoning and motivation. It is prudent to secure loan approval prior to making an offer on any property.

Short $ell SmArt… with Art!

9 Mistakes Sellers Make When Hiring a Listing Agent… from The OC, Surrounding!

9 Mistakes Sellers Make When Hiring a Listing Agent

Hearken back, if you will, to the place and time when you bought your first home.  If you were like most buyers, your best case scenario was to find an agent who was part money manager, part negotiator extraordinaire and part therapist to help you through the process.But your priorities might be – scratch that – should be a little bit different when you’re looking for an agent to help you price, list, market and sell your home.There are loads of lists to be found online and in books about the questions you should ask when you interview listing agents. But it’s a lot harder to figure out what mistakes the sellers who have gone before you would avoid, if they could. Fortunately, that’s what we’re here for.I’ve heard from thousands and thousands of sellers over the years, online and off, about the things they neglected to do when they were selecting their listing agent – the omissions they regretted later.  Here are the top nine – and in the comments, I’d love to have you all share more!1.  They don’t totally understand the nature of the challenge. You’re not looking for a new BFF or even for an agent who has the temperament and patience to deal with your cranky husband.  Selling a home quickly and at top dollar requires a concentration of marketing and negotiations skill and less interpersonal skill, compared with buying.  So your challenge as a Seller looking to hire an agent is to feel comfortable that the listing agent you hire has:

  • a strong, documented track record of accomplishing the results you seek for their recent, nearby listings (which might include some marketing through their local agent relationships, but might not) and
  • a strong, proactive, well-thought-out plan for helping you achieve the same success.

I’ve seen a number of sellers who list with friends or relatives that don’t have such a track record often fail to get the results they seek, even if their agent is a lovely human being with strong skills getting homes sold 3 states over in a totally different marketplace with totally different market dynamics.

2. They fail to understand roles and responsibilities.
  When sellers have a bad home-selling experience, 9 times out of 10 that means that their home lagged on the market, sold for way below listing or was in and out of escrow a bunch of times. Sometimes, the fault for these things does fall on the listing agent, especially if there was some sort of huge marketing fail, like the place was listed online with no photos or it was somehow otherwise not fully exposed to the market.  But many, many times the fatal flaws I see in listings are things that are (a) decisions the Seller themselves ultimately made, and (b) the Seller made in direct opposition to their agent’s advice.

Overpricing a property for the market dynamics, failing to handle some major condition or aesthetic issues and/or making it unavailable for showings are 3 things that listing agents spend much of their working lives advising sellers to do differently – which is advice most unhappy Sellers ignore or refuse to follow.

As you interview listing agents, talk with them about which pieces of the process of getting your home sold are things they are responsible for – and which pieces you are ultimately accountable for. And as you walk with them through their plans for preparing, pricing and marketing your home, if you find yourself feeling like pushing back against every thing they say, consider whether that dynamic will truly serve you well throughout your transaction.  Hiring the best agent ever means very, very little if you refuse to follow their advice, whether your reasons for refusing are right or wrong.

3. They omit to ask for the right data – or for any data at all.  Sometimes, the power of an agent’s personality or the lore of a longtime locally legendary agent’s prowess precedes them and takes over the conversation.  And this isn’t all bad: an agent with a super strong local reputation probably got it by dint of the very skills they’ll need to wield in selling your home, and highly social agents often have fantastic buyer broker relationships they use in getting the right target buyers into their listings (read: your home).

That said, if you are at the dining table with an agent, don’t let the conversation get so derailed that you fail to ask for and review the important data points.

You need to know a few key numbers, including:

  • The average number of days their most recent listings have stayed on the market before selling (and how that compares to the area average)
  • The average list price to sale price ratio they achieve for their listings (and how that compares to the area average)
  • How many listings your home would be competing with if you listed it today (and how they justify which homes they threw into that mix)
  • How many offers most home sellers in your area are fielding
  • How many other listings they currently have, and how many team members are available to service them.

Ask for this data and discuss with the agent candidate how it applies to the decisions you need to make: starting with your agent choice, but also including your pricing and timing decisions.

4.  They fail to understand the data. 
A lot of people who are super smart, Type A folks are so used to being highly competent that even when a listing agent candidate proactively presents data like that described above, they fail to ask questions about things they don’t understand.  Let me tell you – if you don’t do real estate all day everyday, there’s no reason to expect that you’ll have mastery over this information at first glance.

If you don’t understand the data, the marketing plan or anything else the agent presents to you: ask. And keep asking until you do fully understand the information and it’s implications for you – even if you think you’re asking a silly question, you think it should be obvious.  It’s a great way to make sure the relationship starts off on the right foot, and that you’re picking an agent who is happy and easy about breaking complex information down until you’re comfortable with it.

5.  They don’t check references. As with all of the often-omitted items on this list, listing agent candidates often provide references to potential Seller clients as a matter of course.  But very few folks actually call and check them.  Do.  You can come up with a list of questions or just tell the reference contact a little about your situation and ask them to share something of their experience with the agent.  Let’s be real – no agent is likely to give you references who are going to talk badly of them.  But approaching your reference checks with the intent to have an open conversation about the past clients’ experience creates the opportunity for you to get all sorts of nuanced insights, rather than just a “good agent” or “bad agent” rating.

6.  They don’t ask for a detailed marketing plan.  It’s essential to know precisely what steps your agent plans to take to market your home, before you hire them. What sites will your listing show up on?  How many pictures will the listing include?  What about Open Houses or marketing directly to buyer’s brokers?  How do they propose to ensure that every qualified buyer who is on the hunt for a home like yours will see it?

Having a written marketing plan in hand (or in some digital format) empowers you to do things.  If your home lags on the market, it’s a troubleshooting checklist that might surface what hasn’t happened or where an error might be glitching up your home’s marketing.  And if you do the checklist and the home does appear to have been well and fully marketed, the plan can provide a strong proof point in favor of a price reduction.

7.  They don’t discuss property preparation.  Different agents might have very different approaches to what needs to happen to your home before it goes onto the market. They might also have different approaches to how that work will get done.  Some agents manage property preparation from soup to nuts, while others will give you some thoughts on what needs to happen and leave you to do it. Some will refer you to stagers and vendors, while others will bring people in on their own dime to actually execute their vision, and still others might even have access to home improvement contractors who will do some work now for payment after closing (this often depends on your price point and on what practices are standard in your market).  Talk to every agent you interview, in detail, about what they envision will need to happen to your property before they list it, and how intensely involved they can and will be in helping you get the work done.

8.  They don’t ask about Plans B, C and D.  The real estate market wouldn’t be the real estate market if it didn’t throw you curve balls.  Some agents are strong at executing a cookie-cutter marketing plan so long as everything goes smoothly, but are not-so-great at problem solving when things don’t go as planned. Unfortunately, it’s tough to know that your agent lacks a backup plan until you actually need it! Ask your prospective agent candidates what complications, challenges and surprises they have encountered recently in their listing transactions and how they resolved a couple of them.

9.  They don’t read the contract.  One of the most major freak-out moments I see happen with disgruntled Sellers (i.e., members of the club you’re trying not to join) arises when they are very upset with their listing agent and decide to cancel the relationship only to realize they’ve signed a contract locking them into it for 17 years. (I exaggerate, but you get the gist.)  Similarly, some listing agreements have terms that mandate the Seller pay the agent’s commission if the Seller receives (but doesn’t accept) an offer meeting certain criteria or if the Seller finds the Buyer themselves.

Irvine to host USA Swimming’s U.S. Open for first time… from The OC!

Irvine to host USA Swimming’s U.S. Open for first time

Several swimmers who didn’t qualify for this week’s FINA World Championships in Barcelona, Spain, will find an open lane this week in Irvine.

USA Swimming’s U.S. Open will be held in California for the first time, starting Tuesday at the William Woollett Jr. Aquatics Center.

Article Tab: Corey Okubo of University, the Register's swimmer of the year, will swim in the 200 butterfly at the U.S. Open on Tuesday.
Corey Okubo of University, the Register’s swimmer of the year, will swim in the 200 butterfly at the U.S. Open on Tuesday.
STEVEN GEORGES, THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER

A group of U.S. Olympians, led by sprint-freestyler Cullen Jones, is scheduled to be among almost 1,000 swimmers in the five-day meet, which dates back to 1985.

The group of U.S. Olympians includes sprint-freestyler Amanda Weir, butterflier Tyler McGill, freestyler Lia Neal, freestyler Haley Anderson and backstroker Nick Thoman.

Prelims begin each day at 9 a.m. with finals set for 5 p.m.

Anderson made it to Barcelona in the open water division and captured the 5K race on July 20.

Tom Shields is among the county swimmers to watch. After failing to qualify for Barcelona in the 100-meter butterfly at the world trials, the former Edison standout will be part of a strong butterfly field Thursday.

Reigning Register swimmer of the year Corey Okubo of University and the Aquazot club could make a splash in the 200 butterfly on Tuesday.

Cindy Tran, another former Edison product, is expected to race after competing at the recent World University Games in Russia. The Cal swimmer is among the top seeds in Friday’s 100 backstroke.

The U.S. Open also will play host to more than 100 international swimmers, including several from Australia.

Some rising, younger swimmers will race this week and next week at the Speedo Junior Nationals, also set for Woollett.

Crean Lutheran’s duo of Ella Eastin and Lindsey Engel are planning on limited competition this week with the focus on juniors.

U.S. Open of Surfing means big business for Huntington Beach… from The OC!

U.S. Open of Surfing means big business

As three small Fiat cars chug along the ocean’s surface, the buzz on the beach begins.

“Are those cars out in the water?” beach commentator Dave Stanfield exclaimed over the microphone, directing thousands of beachgoers to the odd sight in the ocean just past the end of the Huntington Beach Pier.

Article Tab: Three Fiat jet skis make their way across the waters of Huntington Beach during a surfing heat Saturday morning in the first day of the US Open of Surfing. Fiat, a new sponsor for the event, made their presence known with the three imitation vehicles cruising around the water. Guests are also able to sign up for a raffle to win a Fiat 500L.
Three Fiat jet skis make their way across the waters of Huntington Beach during a surfing heat Saturday morning in the first day of the US Open of Surfing. Fiat, a new sponsor for the event, made their presence known with the three imitation vehicles cruising around the water. Guests are also able to sign up for a raffle to win a Fiat 500L.
KEVIN LARA, ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
The promotional stunt for the Italian carmaker did exactly what executives were hoping: People on the sand forgot about the surfers in the water for a few minutes and snapped photos and videos of the “vehicles” (actually, car shells wrapped around jet skis).

Jason Stoicevich, head of Fiat brand North America, had people coming up to him asking: Do Fiats really work in the water? Just to be clear, they do not, he said. But the water-borne cars – also seen in TV ads showcasing the brand’s arrival in America – were just one aspect to Fiat’s sponsorship of this year’s big surf event.

The Vans U.S. Open of Surfing – the world’s largest surf festival and contest – brings about 1 million beachgoers to the sand during a nine-day run that ends Sunday. While much attention is given to the gathering of the globe’s best surfers, there’s no ignoring the big business generated by the event for everyone from corporate brands to local businesses, which see a mass influx of visitors to the Huntington Beach downtown area.

A 2010 economic impact study conducted by the Huntington Beach Marketing and Visitors Bureau estimated that $21.5 million was spent in Orange County during that year’s U.S. Open (the latest for which data are available), $17 million of it in Surf City.

About 500,000 people attended the event in 2010. With nearly double the amount of people showing up in years since then – and with the economy rebounding and consumers feeling more buoyant – the monetary impact this time could be far higher.

Christmas in July

For Jack’s Surfboard owner Ron Abdel, it’s like Christmas smack dab in the middle of summer.

Abdel started stocking the shelves with Vans U.S. Open of Surfing souvenir shirts as early as July 4. Even before the actual surf contest started, he had to reorder more shirts from Vans. He hopes to sell about 30,000 t-shirts, both from the retail store and a booth in front of his store.

In the nine days during the U.S. Open, the store could do about 20 to 25 percent of its entire year’s sales. Abdel has added 10 extra employees for the store, which sits on Main Street and Pacific Coast Highway, as well as shifting employees from other stores to help at the booth outside. “We’re doing really well,” he said.

Vans General Manager for North America Doug Palladini said he was surprised by the potential for merchandising around the U.S. Open. A 6,400-square-foot pop-up store selling Vans goods sits on the sand, as do several smaller booths set up around the site. In the store, sales people are armed with iPads to help with transactions when the lines get too long.

“We (built) a retail monstrosity on the beach,” Palladini said. “The appetite for an event T-shirt seems to be absolutely insatiable. You would think among O.C. consumers, they have a decent T-shirt collection. Apparently not. It is a massive business, it’s crazy.”

Local hotels have been booked for months. “It is the one week of the year when we don’t get any sleep,” said Paul Frechette, general manager of the Shorebreak Hotel, which sits along Pacific Coast Highway with a view of the ocean and pier. “The U.S. Open finances all the hotels for months because it does so well.”

The surf-inspired boutique hotel popped up four years ago and is the go-to place to stay for some of the famous athletes and fans who come to town for the event. It was all booked up two or three months ago, though it kept a few rooms open for CEOs and athletes who arrive at the last minute. Last year, Frechette’s crew put a sand bucket in each room, with a shovel, custom U.S. Open surf wax, sunscreen and a beach towel. This year, they’re printing out photos of all the surfer contestants and placing them in rooms. If that surfer wins the event, the people staying in the room are entered in a drawing for a free weekend at the hotel.

Day trippers

Of the $21.5 million that the 2010 report estimated was spent in the county, $16.6 million went to lodging and retail sales, generating $612,000 in Orange County taxes. In Huntington, spending reached $13.2 million, raising $475,465 in taxes.

The study showed that attendees spent an overall average $43.45 per day. That per-capita figure is depressed a bit by the relative youth of the crowd, said Jerry Wheeler, chief executive of the Huntington Beach Chamber of Commerce.

“When you think a couple hundred thousand people in the course of a weekend – my gosh, that’s a lot of people,” said Wheeler. “A lot are day trippers, but a lot are overnight stays.”

The business benefits for the city extend beyond dollars spent, said Steve Bone, president and CEO of the Huntington Beach Marketing and Visitors Bureau. It’s also about branding.

When Bone goes to national conferences, other marketing officials tell him how jealous they are of the national press the U.S. Open generates. He recalled a few years ago when his father called after seeing a photo in his small Illinois paper of Kelly Slater shooting the Huntington pier.

“It absolutely confirms the branding of Huntington Beach as Surf City USA,” he said.

An advertising bonanza

Stroll on the wooden planks along the beach, and you can’t miss the advertisements.

There’s no mistake about who is this year’s title sponsor, with building-size banners and flags screaming “Vans” scattered throughout the 14-acre city on the sand. Other sponsors include Red Bull, which has a lounge where people can hang and sip energy drinks. Nearby, McDonalds’ booth hosts wacky smoothie-drinking contests.

“This is a great opportunity for us to really deal with a large population,” says Vans’ Palladini. “There’s not another opportunity like this in surfing and skating.”

That reflects to some degree an opening up of branding opportunities. In past years, title sponsor Nike shut out any competing brands.

The surfers themselves are walking billboards, with stickers from various surf brands adorning their boards.

Bob Davis, co-owner of Carrozza Surfboards, jumped on the chance to have a booth on the sand. Carrozza launched about a year ago; it sells boards out of a local shaping room and its website, but not through other stores. The company sees the U.S. Open as a perfect way to get the word out. Carrozza is also making ding repairs for all of the pro surfers’ boards.

“It’s going to be huge for us, because we don’t have boards in shops,” Davis said. “We get to shake hands with a lot of the best guys out there, and maybe slide them a business card if the opportunity presents itself.”

Carrozza also teamed up with Fiat to have surfboards set next to the model cars on the sand. Fiat is showcasing its adventure model 500 L, as well as a new electric model that just hit stores this week and has a long waiting list.

California is Fiat’s No. 1 market in the U.S., with about 20 percent of nationwide sales. Stoicevich said the surf community is full of the trend setters and early adopters the car company wants to attract.

“It’s just the perfect tie-in,” he said.

5 Real Estate Recovery Myths… from The OC!

5 Real Estate Recovery Myths

Like anything else, real estate has its urban legends, its stories that get told so often they seem like they must be true. But unlike urban legends about exploding Pop Rocks or the origins of Jennifer Aniston’s ‘Friends’-era haircut, real estate myths have the potential to create fear, panic, paralysis and all sorts of other decision glitches.

The recent market upturn, coming on the heels of 6 years of near-Depression, has given rise to its own set of real estate myths.  Here is a handful, along with some ways you can and should rethink them.Myth #1.  It’s recovering too fast.  According to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price index, American home prices increased an average of 10.6 percent between March 2012 and March 2013. Twelve of the 20 major metro areas tracked had year-over-year median home price increases in the double-digits. The list was topped by Phoenix, San Francisco and Las Vegas, all of which saw 20 percent or greater annual home price increases.

That seems crazy fast, to some. So crazy, in fact, that it’s created the fear that the current market’s exuberance will re-create the steep incline and decline in home values that we all remember not-so-fondly from the last boom-bust cycle.

Here’s the deal: markets have cycles, period. So I can guarantee you that the ups and downs will repeat, though hopefully not to such extremes. Part of what made the last down cycle so extreme was the fact that lenders were greenlighting massive home loans to borrowers without requiring them to document their ability to pay for the property over the long term. Buyers, in turn, overextended themselves regularly. Today’s loans are allowing people to buy without putting much down, but I haven’t seen almost any examples of the fully stated income or so-called “liar’s” loans that really got people in trouble. (Yet.)

Here’s the other thing: the data can be a bit misleading.  When an area’s home values have been very, very depressed for long, it simply doesn’t take that vast of an uptick to generate double-digit percentage point increases. When you look at the top five recovery markets, according to the Case-Shiller, four of them: Phoenix, Las Vegas, Miami and Tampa – ranked among the hardest hit markets in the foreclosure crisis and resulting downturn. (San Francisco was the anomaly.)  When you look at other markets that skated through the recession relatively unscathed, like New York, you see the percentage point increase year-over-year was much less impressive/ less scary (depending on your outlook), at 2.6 percent.

Myth #2.  Investors are driving demand. In some areas, investors are buying up lots of low-priced homes. From big Wall Street investment groups to Mom-and-Pop investors, people who don’t plan to live in the homes they’re buying were responsible for about 20% of May home sales. But this number is actually on a downward path – investors were responsible for 22% of home sales in April, and investor activity should continue to decline as prices increase, putting a cap on the profits investors can realize.

While investor activity is declining, buyer demand is increasing, as evidenced by increasing numbers of cash transactions, offers per property and speed of homes leaving the market.

First-time buyers are responsible for 36% of current buyer activity and repeat homeowners for over 43%. Investors have been active, but by no means are they responsible for creating the intense buyer demand that now characterizes the market.

Myth #3.  Sellers are stuck.  This time, let’s start with what’s true. Many, many sellers in hot markets are in the midst of an exasperating Catch-22:  they can finally sell their homes, which have been underwater for years. But now they struggle to buy, amidst the multiple offer mania – some report having to make offers on dozens of homes, or even having to rent a place until they can buy one.

As I see it, sellers aren’t stuck as much as they are being forced into being strategic about sequencing their transactions and setting up their deal points. During the recession, millions of sellers had no equity – or negative equity. That meant they couldn’t sell, which meant they didn’t have the money to buy – heck, many couldn’t even refinance. That’s what I call stuck. Now, they have the option to pull cash out to buy first, the option to refinance and stay put, and the option to sell – period.  So for my dollar, today’s sellers are nowhere near stuck, compared with the truly stuck sellers of yesteryear.

Most of the sellers who have recently, truly gotten stuck (i.e., sellers who’ve been forced to rent until they could successfully buy) ended up in that situation because they listed their homes first, unaware that the market truly had shifted and that their home would fly off the market. Now, we know. So, if you’re selling in a super-hot market, work with your agent to put a strategy in place. Consider buying first, if you have the means or can get them. Or list your home with a Seller’s Contingency or a rent-back agreement (where your home’s buyer rents it back to you for a short time), to buy yourself some extra time to score a new place.  Your agent and mortgage pros can help.

Myth #4.  Rates are through the roof.  Have mortgage interest rates gone up?  Yes.  Is the Fed signaling they intend to raise rates, too?  Yes – in 2015.  (Not exactly tomorrow.)

Last week’s reported 30 year mortgage rates were 3.94 percent, and 15-year rates were right around 3%.  Given that the record low rates clocked in at 3.31 (30-year) and 2.62 (15-year), even today’s higher rates are not worth your worry.  Nor is an increase of rates likely to cause all the pent-up buyer demand of the last few years to dissipate.  My Dad used to remind me that people bought homes when rates were 14% in the 80’s, and they will buy them now, even as they inch up – because they need and want places to live.

Myth #5.  Foreclosures are a thing of the past. Through the recession, many banks and mortgage servicers began to hold hundreds of thousands of foreclosed homes off the market to avoid flooding it, depressing prices even further than they already were. And even now, these institutions continue to trickle them onto the market, rather than creating a deluge of home inventory. Additionally, mortgage regulators now allow servicers to rent out REOs, versus selling them, and to hold them as long as 5 or 10 years following foreclosure, if needed.

While we are seeing a steep decline in the number of newly foreclosured homes, we can expect to have a higher-than-average number of foreclosed homes – REOs – on the market for some years to come. This so-called “shadow inventory” had declined over 10% nationwide between January 2012 and January 2013.  And with the uptick in demand, we should continue to see this so-called “shadow inventory” of homes decline as banks take the opportunity to get these homes off their books.

$ell SmArt… with Art!
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Exploring the shuttle’s O.C. connections… from The OC!

Exploring the shuttle’s O.C. connections

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Space shuttle Endeavour seems to hover in its hangar at the California Science Center in Los Angeles.
DAVID WHITING, ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER

LOS ANGELES – Boeing engineer Stan Barauskas points up at the giant flaps on Space Shuttle Endeavour and explains to a curious woman the hydraulics behind steering the black and white bird.

Impressed with the California Science Center volunteer’s knowledge, the woman asks Barauskas how he knows so much. Proud but modest, Barauskas glances down at the polished concrete floor and admits, “I designed them.”

It’s a very cool moment under the massive rocket engines of a very cool 75-ton spaceship. But the chat isn’t just about boldly going where no one has gone before. For more than a decade, much of the shuttle program was supported by Boeing in Huntington Beach.

Yes, we sometimes forget that Orange County played – and still plays – a significant role in seeking out new life and new civilizations.

• • •

Much as I hate to admit it, it’s unlikely that any dreams of exploring strange new worlds are going to come true for average civilians in our lifetimes – or our grandchildren’s lifetimes.

And that is why I’m at the Science Center – to make dreams come true as much as possible. While we can’t join real-life Capt. Kirks, we can see and touch things that have touched the heavens.

In one gallery sit nitrogen-filled tires that were aboard Endeavour and were scraped raw during a landing. A sign encourages visitors to touch the black rubber. I reach out for a Spock-like mind-meld.

It’s not about the 205-pound tires. I’m seeking a tactile connection to the final frontier. Closing my eyes and imagining, the tires become a wormhole to the solar system, the galaxy, the universe. The Crab Nebula races by, the supernova’s purples and blues glowing against blackness.

The shouts of a gaggle of children bring me back to planet Earth. And it’s onward to the most popular shuttle exhibit except for the Endeavour itself.

That would be the space potty.

• • •

I don’t know why going to the bathroom is the most popular Endeavour exhibit. “Star Trek,” “Star Wars,” even “Battlestar Galactica” didn’t bother with this basic experience – and “Galactica” ran for four seasons.

Still, the toilet gets the biggest crowd. It even stars in its own video.

I’ll skip most of the details and just say it’s all about suction. The seat hole is 4 inches wide, compared with your toilet, which is, like, more than twice that. There are different, um, devices for men and women. Yes, zero gravity offers challenges we don’t consider.

You know how actors behave in movies and on television as if there’s gravity, space beer in mugs, silver boots on floor? Barauskas explains that shuttle engineers had to be sure real-life astronauts could always strap in or Velcro down.

We wander over to the flip side of the potty – the galley. It’s nothing fancy; a conventional oven heats meals. Still, there’s a touch of satisfaction in Barauskas’ voice when he mentions it was designed by men and women he knew and remains friends with.

A little background: The shuttle program started about four decades ago. Early on, Rockwell International won a $2.6 billion contract for much of the work, which was done in Downey. That’s where men and women like Barauskas spent much of their careers. In 1996, Rockwell merged with Boeing, and several years later, the Downey operation closed and Boeing consolidated its force in Huntington Beach.

When the shuttle program ended a few years ago, Boeing laid off some 100 workers at the Huntington Beach facility. It was in Huntington Beach where Barauskas retired – and it’s in Huntington Beach where, Barauskas smiles as he tells me this, he recently returned to work part time.

For people such as Barauskas, building spaceships isn’t just a job; it’s a passion.

• • •

We check out the display of the Rocketdyne Operations Support Center that was once in Canoga Park and remotely monitored the engines for every shuttle launch. With a sweep of his arm, Barauskas says the work area is tiny in comparison with the 50 work stations at the Kennedy Space Center where Barauskas worked during the launch of the first shuttle on April 12, 1981, as well as during several other launches.

With a grin, Barauskas calls those days “exciting.”

He also recalls two other dates seared into his soul: Jan. 28, 1986, the day Challenger blew up after launch and Feb. 1, 2003, the day Columbia disintegrated during re-entry. Reeling off a series of statistics like the engineer that he is, Barauskas details exactly what went wrong, the problem with the Challenger’s booster O-rings and cold temperatures, foam clipping Columbia’s left wing.

Then Barauskas offers what engineers did to correct the problems. It’s a reminder that exploration can be dangerous, even deadly. But it’s also a reminder that humans learn, find solutions, fix problems.

• •

We enter the hanger that is temporary housing for Endeavour. Placed on earthquake resistant steel pilings, the shuttle is high enough to walk under and seems to hover.

The biggest surprise isn’t Endeavour’s hulking size. If you’re a sci-fi sy-fy fan you may remember a TV series called “Firefly.” It turns out “Firefly” nailed what a vehicle that travels through hellfire and returns to Earth looks like.

Endeavour is scarred, burned and rightly so. This shuttle flew 25 missions, spent 296 days in space, completed 4,671 orbits and traveled nearly 122 million miles – and its windows were made in Huntington Beach.

Volunteer Art Hill offers tile samples to touch. White Nomex tiles are soft, like a blanket. Their purpose – to insulate. Hill explains that dead air is the best insulator and the white tiles maximize that. They withstand temperatures of nearly 1,000 degrees.

Most of the black tiles are air-light, can crumble if squeezed tightly and withstand even higher temperatures. Finally come the heavy tiles, something called reinforced carbon-carbon. They are on the front edges of the wings and on Endeavour’s nose and are good up to 2,750 degrees.

As we leave the vast hanger, Barauskas explains why Endeavour has the British spelling. It’s named after Capt. James Cook’s first ship to sail the Pacific, a ship of exploration.

Like its modern counterpart, Cook’s vessel also was a ship of dreams.